With the September teal season and the October “short season” behind them, waterfowlers in the South are looking forward to the main event—the (hopefully) big migration flights of November, December, and January. Since the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service announced the findings of the annual Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey in late summer, the South has experienced back-to-back-to-back hurricanes, horrific flooding, persistent drought in some areas, and the complete implosion of University of North Carolina football. Add to the wild weather the early predictions of a wet, warm winter for the region, and it’s a head-scratcher what current waterfowl populations might mean for Southern hunters.
But one word encapsulates this year’s migratory flight predictions: Whew! In nearly all respects, this year’s breeding success for North American ducks was a close shave.
Bird estimates could have been a lot worse. Many waterfowl enthusiasts expected as much. But last spring’s rains across much of the primary waterfowl breeding areas came in just enough time, and there were just enough ducks to take advantage of the water.
Be very happy about that, says Jerry Holden, Ducks Unlimited’s director of operations for its Southern region. Each year, the Wild South checks in with Holden to get his Southern-fried take on what the science says about what skies over Southern duck blinds might look like for the upcoming hunting season. And this year, as always, Holden dishes out his medicine straight: “I think it will be solidly mediocre,” he says. And thank your lucky duck calls for that.
To derive population estimates of breeding waterfowl, there are two survey areas. The “traditional survey area” includes the Prairie Pothole Region—the famed “duck factory”—which largely feeds the Central and Mississippi flyways. Separately, the “eastern survey area” generates a breeding population estimate for six common duck species groups in eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S., which produce most of the of the birds in the Atlantic Flyway.
Overall, breeding duck numbers for 2024 in the traditional survey area were up 5 percent over 2023 numbers, for a total of 33.99 million ducks. That’s the first increase in total surveyed breeding ducks since 2015. Mallards were up 8 percent over 2023, but still lagged behind the species’ long-term average. But given the dry conditions across much of the breeding grounds during early spring, that’s a huge plus.
In the eastern survey area, mallard numbers dropped 4 percent, and counted wood ducks dropped 10 percent. Meanwhile, green-winged teal had a banner year, up 20 percent from 2023, and black ducks posted a strong showing, up 17 percent.
Drilling down on the details, Holden says, presents more of a mixed picture. “This is the longest running wildlife survey in the world,” he says, “and it’s highly statistically relevant. But it is not a census.” Consider wigeon. Their numbers increased a whopping 55 percent in the traditional survey area, but Holden tempers his enthusiasm. “A huge change like that often relates to a significant negative number in the past,” he explains. “My tendency is to look at that figure of wigeon being over the long-term-average figure by 12 percent and say, ‘Wigeon numbers are pretty much normal.’”
The numbers also suggest changes that could be coming to next year’s waterfowl seasons. Across the country, one particular species of concern is pintails. These prized ducks were down 11 percent from 2023, and a disappointing 49 percent from the long-term average. But the USFWS has indicated that bag limits for pintails next year will likely increase to three per day. Some scientists think that previous pintail estimates may have been inaccurate, and the Pacific Flyway, a pintail stronghold, still holds high numbers of the birds. Through the federal Adaptive Harvest Management approach, regulations can fluctuate due to population changes, with the ability to fine-tune management. “Harvest isn’t typically harmful to populations,” Holden says. “Habitat, water, food, and refugia matter more. But harvest is something humans can control, so these regulations are a way to learn how these birds might respond to efforts to manage pressure.”
And for next year, the early teal season in the Central, Mississippi, and Atlantic flyways will lose seven days. Though green-winged teal are booming, blue-winged teal have fallen below the population threshold for the longer season.
Which goes to show that there is as much art as science in managing waterfowl populations on a continental scale. While hunters can’t draw a solid line between numbers in a database and birds in the sky over the duck blind, these population estimates are useful when considered with the proper perspective. And to be honest, they’re just fun to think about before the season starts.
But one thing seems assured: With green-winged teal a bright spot across the country, one of the biggest winners of the upcoming duck season could be shotgun shell manufacturers—those speedy birds are wicked hard to hit.
